Basketball · Uruguay Liga de Ascenso · 01/08, 01:15
Prediction: Olimpia vs Lagomar
Prediction summary
Estimated points
155.7Total
Olimpia82.4
Lagomar73.4
1X2
Olimpia
Lagomar
Recent form · 10 last
Olimpia
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Lagomar
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olimpia
4–2
Lagomar
(6 last)
- Olimpia70-67Lagomar
- Olimpia94-84Lagomar
- Lagomar98-96Olimpia
- Olimpia87-91Lagomar
- Lagomar72-77Olimpia
- Olimpia86-71Lagomar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olimpia 1607 · Lagomar 1511
| Olimpia | Lagomar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
155.7 points · Bet365 line 153.5 · +2.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points155.7Olimpia 82.4 · Lagomar 73.4
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia (rating 1607 vs 1511).
- Olimpia is a clear favourite (74% market).
- H2H favours Olimpia: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Olimpia | Lagomar | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 83.9 / 71.8 | 77.3 / 80.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 75.8 / 69 | 79.8 / 74.6 |
| Est. result | 82 | 73 |
Est. total155.7
Line O/U153.5
Diff.2.2
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia 4–0–2 Lagomar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/26 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Olimpia | 70-67 | Lagomar |
| 29/07/25 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Olimpia | 94-84 | Lagomar |
| 07/06/25 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Lagomar | 98-96 | Olimpia |
| 15/08/24 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Olimpia | 87-91 | Lagomar |
| 10/06/24 Uruguay Liga de Ascenso | Lagomar | 72-77 | Olimpia |
| 17/06/23 Uruguay Metro League | Olimpia | 86-71 | Lagomar |
Standings · Uruguay Liga de Ascenso
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 13 | 11 | 2 | 1101 | 979 | 24 |
| 2 | Trouville | 13 | 11 | 2 | 1106 | 929 | 24 |
| 3 | Stockolmo | 13 | 9 | 4 | 983 | 881 | 22 |
| 4 | Verdirrojo | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1020 | 945 | 22 |
| 5 | Tabare | 13 | 8 | 5 | 1068 | 988 | 21 |
| 6 | Sayago | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1039 | 1021 | 20 |
| 7 | Lagomar | 13 | 7 | 6 | 992 | 1016 | 20 |
| 8 | Montevideo | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1142 | 1075 | 20 |
| 9 | Urupan de Pando | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1026 | 1023 | 20 |
| 10 | Larre Borges | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1043 | 1047 | 19 |
| 11 | Marne | 13 | 3 | 10 | 943 | 1068 | 16 |
| 12 | Olivol Mundial | 13 | 3 | 10 | 868 | 982 | 16 |
| 13 | Albatros | 13 | 2 | 11 | 1008 | 1168 | 15 |
| 14 | Colon | 13 | 1 | 12 | 901 | 1118 | 14 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Olimpia | Lagomar |
|---|---|---|
| Sayago | 90-78 W | 90-88 W |
| Trouville | 93-81 W | 60-111 L |
| Olivol Mundial | 61-58 W | 93-82 W |
| Verdirrojo | 69-59 W | 65-74 L |
| Marne | 88-80 W | 82-70 W |
| Colon | 89-67 W | 89-80 W |
| Albatros | 101-75 W | 94-85 W |
| Larre Borges | 96-77 W | 63-77 L |
| Record vs common | 8 W 0 D 0 L | 5 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Olimpia (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olimpia
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Sayago Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
90-78 | W |
| 25/07 | Trouville Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
93-81 | W |
| 22/07 | Olivol Mundial Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
61-58 | W |
| 18/07 | Verdirrojo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
69-59 | W |
| 15/07 | Tabare Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
66-69 | L |
| 10/07 | Stockolmo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
86-74 | W |
| 07/07 | Marne Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
88-80 | W |
| 04/07 | Colon Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
89-67 | W |
| 30/06 | Albatros Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
101-75 | W |
| 24/06 | Larre Borges Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
96-77 | W |
Lagomar
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Marne Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
82-70 | W |
| 26/07 | Urupan de Pando Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
71-61 | W |
| 24/07 | Colon Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
89-80 | W |
| 21/07 | Albatros Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
94-85 | W |
| 17/07 | Larre Borges Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
63-77 | L |
| 15/07 | Verdirrojo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
65-74 | L |
| 11/07 | Montevideo Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
66-73 | L |
| 05/07 | Sayago Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
90-88 | W |
| 30/06 | Trouville Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
60-111 | L |
| 24/06 | Olivol Mundial Uruguay Liga de Ascenso |
93-82 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olimpia vs Lagomar?
Our model gives 74% to Olimpia.
How many points are expected in Olimpia vs Lagomar?
The model estimates 155.7 total points (Olimpia 82.4 · Lagomar 73.4).