Basketball · Portugal LBP · 31/10, 17:00
Prediction: Ovarense vs FC Porto
Team pages: Ovarense · FC Porto
Prediction summary
Estimated points
159.9Total
Ovarense77.5
FC Porto82.5
1X2
Ovarense
FC Porto
Recent form · 10 last
Ovarense
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
FC Porto
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ovarense
2–4
FC Porto
(6 last)
- Ovarense83-60FC Porto
- FC Porto74-62Ovarense
- Ovarense66-94FC Porto
- FC Porto75-77Ovarense
- FC Porto88-77Ovarense
- Ovarense74-77FC Porto
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ovarense 1484 · FC Porto 1625
| Ovarense | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
159.9 points · Bet365 line 167.5 · -7.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points159.9Ovarense 77.5 · FC Porto 82.5
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1484 vs 1625).
- H2H favours FC Porto: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Ovarense | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 78.4 / 76.2 | 90.8 / 83.5 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 79.2 / 72.6 | 93.2 / 84.6 |
| Est. result | 78 | 83 |
Est. total159.9
Line O/U167.5
Diff.7.6
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ovarense 2–0–4 FC Porto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Portugal LBP | Ovarense | 83-60 | FC Porto |
| 06/01/26 Portugal LBP | FC Porto | 74-62 | Ovarense |
| 19/04/25 Portugal LBP | Ovarense | 66-94 | FC Porto |
| 18/03/25 Portugal LBP | FC Porto | 75-77 | Ovarense |
| 09/02/25 Portugal Cup | FC Porto | 88-77 | Ovarense |
| 28/05/24 Portugal LBP | Ovarense | 74-77 | FC Porto |
Standings · Portugal LBP
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 391 | 352 | 8 |
| 2 | Ovarense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 331 | 294 | 7 |
| 3 | SC Braga | 4 | 3 | 1 | 359 | 310 | 7 |
| 4 | Sport Lisboa Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 351 | 303 | 7 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 4 | 2 | 2 | 314 | 307 | 6 |
| 6 | CD Povoa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 297 | 291 | 6 |
| 7 | Vitoria SC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 300 | 328 | 6 |
| 8 | Oliveirense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 262 | 254 | 5 |
| 9 | CAB Madeira | 4 | 1 | 3 | 322 | 333 | 5 |
| 10 | CA Queluz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 252 | 282 | 4 |
| 11 | Portimonense SC | 4 | 0 | 4 | 308 | 357 | 4 |
| 12 | Esgueira | 4 | 0 | 4 | 295 | 371 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ovarense | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 70-71 L | 94-86 W |
| CA Queluz | 73-74 L | 110-93 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Porto (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ovarense
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Sporting CP Portugal LBP |
70-71 | L |
| 17/10 | CD Povoa Portugal LBP |
78-69 | W |
| 10/10 | Vitoria SC Portugal LBP |
87-71 | W |
| 03/10 | SC Braga Portugal LBP |
96-83 | W |
| 16/05 | Oliveirense Portugal LBP |
65-69 | L |
| 13/05 | Oliveirense Portugal LBP |
72-90 | L |
| 09/05 | Oliveirense Portugal LBP |
93-79 | W |
| 25/04 | SC Braga Portugal LBP |
67-74 | L |
| 18/04 | Galitos Barreiro Portugal LBP |
83-82 | W |
| 11/04 | CA Queluz Portugal LBP |
73-74 | L |
FC Porto
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | CAB Madeira Portugal LBP |
93-82 | W |
| 16/10 | Esgueira Portugal LBP |
95-91 | W |
| 11/10 | Sport Lisboa Benfica Portugal LBP |
93-86 | W |
| 02/10 | CA Queluz Portugal LBP |
110-93 | W |
| 14/06 | Sport Lisboa Benfica Portugal LBP |
75-71 | W |
| 12/06 | Sport Lisboa Benfica Portugal LBP |
87-63 | W |
| 09/06 | Sport Lisboa Benfica Portugal LBP |
102-98 | W |
| 07/06 | Sport Lisboa Benfica Portugal LBP |
73-89 | L |
| 31/05 | Sporting CP Portugal LBP |
94-86 | W |
| 29/05 | Sporting CP Portugal LBP |
86-76 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ovarense vs FC Porto?
Our model gives 64% to FC Porto.
How many points are expected in Ovarense vs FC Porto?
The model estimates 159.9 total points (Ovarense 77.5 · FC Porto 82.5).