Basketball · Australia NBL1 Central · 18/07, 12:30

Prediction: Sturt Sabres vs South Adelaide Panthers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

178.9Total

Sturt Sabres91.2

South Adelaide Panthers87.7

1X2

60% 40%

Sturt Sabres South Adelaide Panthers

Recent form · 10 last

Sturt Sabres 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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South Adelaide Panthers 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sturt Sabres 2–4 South Adelaide Panthers (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sturt Sabres 1560 · South Adelaide Panthers 1536

	Sturt Sabres	South Adelaide Panthers
Our model	66%	34%
Market	59%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 178.9 points · Bet365 line 181.5 · -2.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points178.9Sturt Sabres 91.2 · South Adelaide Panthers 87.7

Match keys

H2H favours South Adelaide Panthers: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Sturt Sabres	South Adelaide Panthers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	86.7 / 82.4	98.1 / 89.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	92 / 77.6	99.2 / 95.2
Est. result	91	88

Est. total178.9

Line O/U181.5

Diff.2.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.57

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.83

2 (+3.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 181.51.83

Under 181.51.83

Diff.: 3.2 · Est. total: 178.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.61 ★
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	2
11:43 +3’	1.57	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
11:46	1.61	2.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sturt Sabres 2–0–4 South Adelaide Panthers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Australia NBL1 Central	South Adelaide Panthers	103-79	Sturt Sabres
21/03/26 Australia NBL1 Central	Sturt Sabres	96-93	South Adelaide Panthers
21/06/25 Australia NBL1 Central	Sturt Sabres	85-97	South Adelaide Panthers
12/04/25 Australia NBL1 Central	South Adelaide Panthers	93-82	Sturt Sabres
16/06/24 Australia NBL1 Central	South Adelaide Panthers	87-68	Sturt Sabres
14/04/24 Australia NBL1 Central	Sturt Sabres	97-94	South Adelaide Panthers

Standings · Australia NBL1 Central

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Forestville Eagles	18	16	2	1743	1431
2	Sturt Sabres	18	15	3	1643	1507
3	South Adelaide Panthers	18	13	5	1756	1598
4	Woodville Warriors	18	10	8	1585	1520
5	Central District Lions	18	10	8	1662	1669
6	Norwood Flames	18	7	11	1555	1604
7	West Adelaide Bearcats	18	6	12	1630	1683
8	Eastern Mavericks	18	6	12	1609	1739
9	North Adelaide Rockets	18	5	13	1739	1896
10	Southern Tigers	18	2	16	1640	1915

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sturt Sabres	South Adelaide Panthers
West Adelaide Bearcats	94-85 W	97-87 W
North Adelaide Rockets	104-83 W	109-116 L
Eastern Mavericks	115-79 W	101-82 W
Southern Tigers	91-67 W	115-91 W
Woodville Warriors	56-74 L	91-79 W
Norwood Flames	74-67 W	79-89 L
Central District Lions	84-81 W	92-98 L
Forestville Eagles	76-95 L	86-84 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sturt Sabres (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sturt Sabres

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/07	West Adelaide Bearcats Australia NBL1 Central	94-85	W
04/07	North Adelaide Rockets Australia NBL1 Central	104-83	W
28/06	Eastern Mavericks Australia NBL1 Central	115-79	W
27/06	Southern Tigers Australia NBL1 Central	91-67	W
20/06	Woodville Warriors Australia NBL1 Central	56-74	L
13/06	Norwood Flames Australia NBL1 Central	74-67	W
31/05	Central District Lions Australia NBL1 Central	84-81	W
30/05	Forestville Eagles Australia NBL1 Central	76-95	L
23/05	South Adelaide Panthers Australia NBL1 Central	79-103	L
09/05	West Adelaide Bearcats Australia NBL1 Central	94-90	W

South Adelaide Panthers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/07	Eastern Mavericks Australia NBL1 Central	101-82	W
04/07	Southern Tigers Australia NBL1 Central	115-91	W
28/06	Central District Lions Australia NBL1 Central	92-98	L
27/06	North Adelaide Rockets Australia NBL1 Central	109-116	L
21/06	Norwood Flames Australia NBL1 Central	79-89	L
13/06	Woodville Warriors Australia NBL1 Central	91-79	W
31/05	Forestville Eagles Australia NBL1 Central	86-84	W
30/05	West Adelaide Bearcats Australia NBL1 Central	97-87	W
23/05	Sturt Sabres Australia NBL1 Central	103-79	W
09/05	Eastern Mavericks Australia NBL1 Central	108-89	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sturt Sabres vs South Adelaide Panthers?

Our model gives 60% to Sturt Sabres.

How many points are expected in Sturt Sabres vs South Adelaide Panthers?

The model estimates 178.9 total points (Sturt Sabres 91.2 · South Adelaide Panthers 87.7).