Basketball · Poland PLK · 09/10, 18:00

Prediction: Zielona Gora vs Legia Warszawa

Team pages: Legia Warszawa

Prediction summary

Estimated points

162.1Total

Zielona Gora81.1

Legia Warszawa81.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

50% 50%

Zielona Gora Legia Warszawa

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Zielona Gora 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLWLL

Legia Warszawa 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

Zielona Gora 2–4 Legia Warszawa (6 last)

Legia Warszawa110-96Zielona Gora
Legia Warszawa78-70Zielona Gora
Zielona Gora76-74Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa84-80Zielona Gora
Zielona Gora85-73Legia Warszawa
Zielona Gora63-79Legia Warszawa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zielona Gora 1522 · Legia Warszawa 1600

	Zielona Gora	Legia Warszawa
Our model	52%	48%
Market	49%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 162.1 points · Bet365 line 167.5 · -5.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points162.1Zielona Gora 81.1 · Legia Warszawa 81.1

Match keys

H2H favours Legia Warszawa: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Zielona Gora	Legia Warszawa
Points F\|A (Last 10)	80.9 / 84.3	81.4 / 76.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	81.2 / 82.8	77.6 / 77.4
Est. result	81	81

Est. total162.1

Line O/U167.5

Diff.5.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.87

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.83

2 (-1)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 167.51.83

Under 167.51.83

Diff.: 6.05 · Est. total: 161.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.87 → 1.87	Pinn 1.97 ★
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	2
13:22 +28’	1.87	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
20:29 +24’	2.07	1.74
09:50 +2’	1.97▼	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zielona Gora 2–0–4 Legia Warszawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/26 Poland Super Cup	Legia Warszawa	110-96	Zielona Gora
21/06/26 Poland PLK	Legia Warszawa	78-70	Zielona Gora
19/06/26 Poland PLK	Zielona Gora	76-74	Legia Warszawa
17/06/26 Poland PLK	Legia Warszawa	84-80	Zielona Gora
15/06/26 Poland PLK	Zielona Gora	85-73	Legia Warszawa
13/06/26 Poland PLK	Zielona Gora	63-79	Legia Warszawa

Standings · Poland PLK

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dziki Warszawa	1	1	0	102	63	2
2	Arka Gdynia	1	1	0	95	70	2
3	King Wilki Morskie Szczecin	1	1	0	104	85	2
4	MKS Dabrowa Gornicza	1	1	0	89	78	2
5	Astoria Bydgoszcz	1	1	0	105	95	2
6	Stal Ostrow	1	1	0	84	79	2
7	Legia Warszawa	1	1	0	79	76	2
8	Anwil Wloclawek	1	1	0	88	87	2
9	Gornik Walbrzych	1	0	1	87	88	1
10	Czarni Slupsk	1	0	1	76	79	1
11	Start Lublin	1	0	1	79	84	1
12	Zielona Gora	1	0	1	95	105	1
13	Gtk Gliwice	1	0	1	78	89	1
14	Polski Cukier Torun	1	0	1	85	104	1
15	Slask Wroclaw	1	0	1	70	95	1
16	Trefl Sopot	1	0	1	63	102	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zielona Gora

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	Astoria Bydgoszcz Poland PLK	95-105	L
21/06	Legia Warszawa Poland PLK	70-78	L
19/06	Legia Warszawa Poland PLK	76-74	W
17/06	Legia Warszawa Poland PLK	80-84	L
15/06	Legia Warszawa Poland PLK	85-73	W
13/06	Legia Warszawa Poland PLK	63-79	L
10/06	Legia Warszawa Poland PLK	82-104	L
08/06	Legia Warszawa Poland PLK	77-74	W
31/05	Arka Gdynia Poland PLK	96-89	W
28/05	Arka Gdynia Poland PLK	85-83	W

Legia Warszawa

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/10	Czarni Slupsk Poland PLK	79-76	W
21/06	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	78-70	W
19/06	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	74-76	L
17/06	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	84-80	W
15/06	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	73-85	L
13/06	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	79-63	W
10/06	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	104-82	W
08/06	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	74-77	L
01/06	Dziki Warszawa Poland PLK	91-78	W
29/05	Dziki Warszawa Poland PLK	78-76	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zielona Gora vs Legia Warszawa?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Zielona Gora 50% · Legia Warszawa 50%).

How many points are expected in Zielona Gora vs Legia Warszawa?

The model estimates 162.1 total points (Zielona Gora 81.1 · Legia Warszawa 81.1).