Basketball · Poland PLK · 11/10, 12:30

Prediction: Arka Gdynia vs Trefl Sopot

Team pages: Arka Gdynia · Trefl Sopot

Prediction summary

Estimated points

168.2Total

Arka Gdynia88

Trefl Sopot80.2

1X2

71% 29%

Arka Gdynia Trefl Sopot

Recent form · 10 last

Arka Gdynia 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Trefl Sopot 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Arka Gdynia 2–4 Trefl Sopot (6 last)

Arka Gdynia80-77Trefl Sopot
Trefl Sopot83-85Arka Gdynia
Trefl Sopot100-72Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia89-97Trefl Sopot
Trefl Sopot95-89Arka Gdynia
Trefl Sopot85-69Arka Gdynia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arka Gdynia 1537 · Trefl Sopot 1497

	Arka Gdynia	Trefl Sopot
Our model	68%	32%
Market	71%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 168.2 points · Bet365 line 168.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points168.2Arka Gdynia 88 · Trefl Sopot 80.2

Match keys

Arka Gdynia is a clear favourite (71% market).
H2H favours Trefl Sopot: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Arka Gdynia	Trefl Sopot
Points F\|A (Last 10)	82.3 / 82.2	82.5 / 88.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	86.8 / 85.4	77.4 / 92
Est. result	88	80

Est. total168.2

Line O/U168.5

Diff.0.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.30

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.83

2 (+7.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 168.51.83

Under 168.51.83

Diff.: 0.95 · Est. total: 167.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.31 ★
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.26

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	2
12:09 +20’	1.30	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
11:55 +34’	1.31	3.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Arka Gdynia 2–0–4 Trefl Sopot

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Poland PLK	Arka Gdynia	80-77	Trefl Sopot
09/11/25 Poland PLK	Trefl Sopot	83-85	Arka Gdynia
18/03/25 Poland PLK	Trefl Sopot	100-72	Arka Gdynia
05/10/24 Poland PLK	Arka Gdynia	89-97	Trefl Sopot
15/09/24 Club Friendlies	Trefl Sopot	95-89	Arka Gdynia
23/03/24 Poland PLK	Trefl Sopot	85-69	Arka Gdynia

Standings · Poland PLK

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dziki Warszawa	1	1	0	102	63	2
2	Arka Gdynia	1	1	0	95	70	2
3	King Wilki Morskie Szczecin	1	1	0	104	85	2
4	MKS Dabrowa Gornicza	1	1	0	89	78	2
5	Astoria Bydgoszcz	1	1	0	105	95	2
6	Stal Ostrow	1	1	0	84	79	2
7	Legia Warszawa	1	1	0	79	76	2
8	Anwil Wloclawek	1	1	0	88	87	2
9	Gornik Walbrzych	1	0	1	87	88	1
10	Czarni Slupsk	1	0	1	76	79	1
11	Start Lublin	1	0	1	79	84	1
12	Zielona Gora	1	0	1	95	105	1
13	Gtk Gliwice	1	0	1	78	89	1
14	Polski Cukier Torun	1	0	1	85	104	1
15	Slask Wroclaw	1	0	1	70	95	1
16	Trefl Sopot	1	0	1	63	102	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arka Gdynia

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/10	Slask Wroclaw Poland PLK	95-70	W
12/06	Dziki Warszawa Poland PLK	78-92	L
09/06	Dziki Warszawa Poland PLK	89-84	W
31/05	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	89-96	L
28/05	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	83-85	L
26/05	Zielona Gora Poland PLK	64-90	L
23/05	Slask Wroclaw Poland PLK	71-54	W
20/05	Slask Wroclaw Poland PLK	86-84	W
18/05	Slask Wroclaw Poland PLK	86-75	W
15/05	Slask Wroclaw Poland PLK	82-92	L

Trefl Sopot

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/10	Dziki Warszawa Poland PLK	63-102	L
21/05	Dziki Warszawa Poland PLK	73-88	L
19/05	Dziki Warszawa Poland PLK	78-85	L
16/05	Dziki Warszawa Poland PLK	81-78	W
14/05	Dziki Warszawa Poland PLK	92-107	L
06/05	Anwil Wloclawek Poland PLK	79-94	L
02/05	Stal Ostrow Poland PLK	88-86	W
25/04	Czarni Slupsk Poland PLK	76-72	W
18/04	Polski Cukier Torun Poland PLK	92-72	W
11/04	Start Lublin Poland PLK	103-97	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arka Gdynia vs Trefl Sopot?

Our model gives 71% to Arka Gdynia.

How many points are expected in Arka Gdynia vs Trefl Sopot?

The model estimates 168.2 total points (Arka Gdynia 88 · Trefl Sopot 80.2).