Basketball · Mexico LNBP · 21/08, 04:00

Prediction: Dorados de Chihuahua vs Abejas

Prediction summary

Estimated points

171.1Total

Dorados de Chihuahua90.3

Abejas80.8

1X2

75% 25%

Dorados de Chihuahua Abejas

Recent form · 10 last

Dorados de Chihuahua 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLLW

Abejas 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Dorados de Chihuahua 6–0 Abejas (6 last)

Dorados de Chihuahua97-81Abejas
Abejas74-83Dorados de Chihuahua
Abejas69-78Dorados de Chihuahua
Abejas80-84Dorados de Chihuahua
Abejas86-88Dorados de Chihuahua
Dorados de Chihuahua90-76Abejas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dorados de Chihuahua 1532 · Abejas 1458

	Dorados de Chihuahua	Abejas
Our model	72%	28%
Market	76%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 171.1 points · Bet365 line 174.5 · -3.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points171.1Dorados de Chihuahua 90.3 · Abejas 80.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dorados de Chihuahua (rating 1532 vs 1458).
Dorados de Chihuahua is a clear favourite (75% market).
H2H favours Dorados de Chihuahua: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Dorados de Chihuahua	Abejas
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.5 / 80.6	85.3 / 89.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	85 / 83.4	81.6 / 88
Est. result	90	81

Est. total171.1

Line O/U174.5

Diff.3.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.22

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-8.5)1.74

2 (+8.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 174.51.83

Under 174.51.83

Diff.: 4.2 · Est. total: 170.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
00:47 +9’	1.22	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
00:55 +1’	1.20	3.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dorados de Chihuahua 6–0–0 Abejas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/26 Mexico LNBP	Dorados de Chihuahua	97-81	Abejas
06/08/25 Mexico LNBP	Abejas	74-83	Dorados de Chihuahua
05/08/25 Mexico LNBP	Abejas	69-78	Dorados de Chihuahua
17/08/24 Mexico LNBP	Abejas	80-84	Dorados de Chihuahua
16/08/24 Mexico LNBP	Abejas	86-88	Dorados de Chihuahua
10/10/23 Mexico LNBP	Dorados de Chihuahua	90-76	Abejas

Standings · Mexico LNBP · LNBP 2026, East

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dorados de Chihuahua	11	8	3	939	886	19
2	Fuerza Regia	11	7	4	960	967	18
3	Panteras Aguascalientes	10	6	4	875	828	16
4	Abejas	11	4	7	948	980	15
5	Freseros Irapuato	11	4	7	972	1025	15
6	Correcaminos	12	2	10	1024	1105	14
7	Santos San Luis	10	4	6	785	875	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dorados de Chihuahua

WWLWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/08	Abejas Mexico LNBP	97-81	W
17/08	Lobos Puebla Mexico LNBP	77-104	L
16/08	Lobos Puebla Mexico LNBP	71-74	L
12/08	Gambusinos de Fresnillo Mexico LNBP	91-77	W
11/08	Gambusinos de Fresnillo Mexico LNBP	89-81	W
07/08	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	92-86	W
06/08	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	96-67	W
02/08	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	67-87	L
01/08	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	86-70	W
26/07	Freseros Irapuato Mexico LNBP	89-79	W

Abejas

WLWLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/08	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	81-97	L
17/08	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	87-102	L
16/08	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	92-83	W
13/08	Soles Mexicali Mexico LNBP	80-87	L
12/08	Soles Mexicali Mexico LNBP	68-71	L
07/08	Astros de Jalisco Mexico LNBP	83-95	L
06/08	Astros de Jalisco Mexico LNBP	90-103	L
01/08	El Calor de Cancun Mexico LNBP	95-85	W
31/07	El Calor de Cancun Mexico LNBP	76-80	L
25/07	Correcaminos Mexico LNBP	101-89	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dorados de Chihuahua vs Abejas?

Our model gives 75% to Dorados de Chihuahua.

How many points are expected in Dorados de Chihuahua vs Abejas?

The model estimates 171.1 total points (Dorados de Chihuahua 90.3 · Abejas 80.8).