Basketball · Mexico LNBP · 21/08, 04:00

Prediction: Freseros Irapuato vs El Calor de Cancun

Prediction summary

Estimated points

174.7Total

Freseros Irapuato88.8

El Calor de Cancun86

1X2

58% 42%

Freseros Irapuato El Calor de Cancun

Recent form · 10 last

Freseros Irapuato 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLLLW

El Calor de Cancun 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Freseros Irapuato 3–2 El Calor de Cancun (5 last)

Freseros Irapuato93-89El Calor de Cancun
El Calor de Cancun104-64Freseros Irapuato
El Calor de Cancun91-83Freseros Irapuato
Freseros Irapuato85-82El Calor de Cancun
Freseros Irapuato106-101El Calor de Cancun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Freseros Irapuato 1458 · El Calor de Cancun 1488

	Freseros Irapuato	El Calor de Cancun
Our model	59%	41%
Market	58%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 174.7 points · Bet365 line 175.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points174.7Freseros Irapuato 88.8 · El Calor de Cancun 86

Match keys

H2H favours Freseros Irapuato: 3-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Freseros Irapuato	El Calor de Cancun
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.2 / 94.1	81.5 / 84.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	93.8 / 95.4	84.6 / 85.8
Est. result	89	86

Est. total174.7

Line O/U175.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.61

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.80

2 (+2.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 175.51.80

Under 175.51.87

Diff.: 0.8 · Est. total: 174.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.62 ★
2	2.55 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	2
00:55 +1’	1.48	2.55
01:09 +12’	1.61▲	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
00:55 +1’	1.62	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Freseros Irapuato 3–0–2 El Calor de Cancun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/26 Mexico LNBP	Freseros Irapuato	93-89	El Calor de Cancun
05/09/25 Mexico LNBP	El Calor de Cancun	104-64	Freseros Irapuato
04/09/25 Mexico LNBP	El Calor de Cancun	91-83	Freseros Irapuato
15/09/24 Mexico LNBP	Freseros Irapuato	85-82	El Calor de Cancun
14/09/24 Mexico LNBP	Freseros Irapuato	106-101	El Calor de Cancun

Standings · Mexico LNBP · LNBP 2026, West

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Astros de Jalisco	12	8	4	1044	964	20
2	Soles Mexicali	10	8	2	833	742	18
3	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	7	3	890	826	17
4	El Calor de Cancun	11	4	7	908	942	15
5	Gambusinos de Fresnillo	11	4	7	827	866	15
6	Diablos Rojos	10	4	6	819	811	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Freseros Irapuato	El Calor de Cancun
Correcaminos	83-86 L	108-99 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	92-89 W	67-78 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Freseros Irapuato

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/08	El Calor de Cancun Mexico LNBP	93-89	W
17/08	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	100-101	L
16/08	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	94-105	L
12/08	Correcaminos Mexico LNBP	83-86	L
11/08	Correcaminos Mexico LNBP	99-96	W
07/08	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	86-82	W
06/08	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	73-99	L
01/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	92-89	W
31/07	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	93-105	L
26/07	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	79-89	L

El Calor de Cancun

LWLWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/08	Freseros Irapuato Mexico LNBP	89-93	L
17/08	Correcaminos Mexico LNBP	108-99	W
16/08	Correcaminos Mexico LNBP	90-83	W
12/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	67-78	L
11/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	69-76	L
07/08	Santos San Luis Mexico LNBP	75-82	L
06/08	Santos San Luis Mexico LNBP	89-84	W
01/08	Abejas Mexico LNBP	85-95	L
31/07	Abejas Mexico LNBP	80-76	W
25/07	Lobos Puebla Mexico LNBP	63-80	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Freseros Irapuato vs El Calor de Cancun?

Our model gives 58% to Freseros Irapuato.

How many points are expected in Freseros Irapuato vs El Calor de Cancun?

The model estimates 174.7 total points (Freseros Irapuato 88.8 · El Calor de Cancun 86).