Basketball · Mexico LNBP · 21/08, 04:15

Prediction: Fuerza Regia vs Gambusinos de Fresnillo

Prediction summary

Estimated points

164.2Total

Fuerza Regia86.8

Gambusinos de Fresnillo77.4

1X2

75% 25%

Fuerza Regia Gambusinos de Fresnillo

Recent form · 10 last

Fuerza Regia 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWWWL

Gambusinos de Fresnillo 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Fuerza Regia 5–1 Gambusinos de Fresnillo (6 last)

Fuerza Regia74-82Gambusinos de Fresnillo
Fuerza Regia99-79Gambusinos de Fresnillo
Fuerza Regia97-83Gambusinos de Fresnillo
Fuerza Regia83-71Gambusinos de Fresnillo
Fuerza Regia86-79Gambusinos de Fresnillo
Fuerza Regia97-71Gambusinos de Fresnillo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fuerza Regia 1512 · Gambusinos de Fresnillo 1460

	Fuerza Regia	Gambusinos de Fresnillo
Our model	69%	31%
Market	76%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 164.2 points · Bet365 line 165.5 · -1.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points164.2Fuerza Regia 86.8 · Gambusinos de Fresnillo 77.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fuerza Regia (rating 1512 vs 1460).
Fuerza Regia is a clear favourite (75% market).
H2H favours Fuerza Regia: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Fuerza Regia	Gambusinos de Fresnillo
Points F\|A (Last 10)	86.6 / 87.6	74.1 / 79.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	90.2 / 86.8	77.8 / 81
Est. result	87	77

Est. total164.2

Line O/U165.5

Diff.1.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.23

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-8.5)1.80

2 (+8.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 165.51.83

Under 165.51.83

Diff.: 1.6 · Est. total: 163.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.23 → 1.23	Bet365 1.23
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.03 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	2
00:54 +3’	1.23	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
00:55 +2’	1.18	4.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fuerza Regia 5–0–1 Gambusinos de Fresnillo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/26 Mexico LNBP	Fuerza Regia	74-82	Gambusinos de Fresnillo
04/08/25 Mexico LNBP	Fuerza Regia	99-79	Gambusinos de Fresnillo
03/08/25 Mexico LNBP	Fuerza Regia	97-83	Gambusinos de Fresnillo
29/08/24 Basketball Matches	Fuerza Regia	83-71	Gambusinos de Fresnillo
05/08/24 Mexico LNBP	Fuerza Regia	86-79	Gambusinos de Fresnillo
04/08/24 Mexico LNBP	Fuerza Regia	97-71	Gambusinos de Fresnillo

Standings · Mexico LNBP · LNBP 2026, West

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Astros de Jalisco	12	8	4	1044	964	20
2	Soles Mexicali	10	8	2	833	742	18
3	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	7	3	890	826	17
4	El Calor de Cancun	11	4	7	908	942	15
5	Gambusinos de Fresnillo	11	4	7	827	866	15
6	Diablos Rojos	10	4	6	819	811	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fuerza Regia	Gambusinos de Fresnillo
Diablos Rojos	95-94 W	66-71 L
Dorados de Chihuahua	86-92 L	77-91 L
Panteras Aguascalientes	82-75 W	69-88 L
Soles Mexicali	95-89 W	57-71 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Fuerza Regia (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fuerza Regia

WLWLLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/08	Gambusinos de Fresnillo Mexico LNBP	74-82	L
17/08	Freseros Irapuato Mexico LNBP	101-100	W
16/08	Freseros Irapuato Mexico LNBP	105-94	W
11/08	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	95-94	W
10/08	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	76-64	W
07/08	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	86-92	L
06/08	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	67-96	L
01/08	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	82-75	W
31/07	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	85-90	L
27/07	Soles Mexicali Mexico LNBP	95-89	W

Gambusinos de Fresnillo

LLLWLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/08	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	82-74	W
17/08	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	66-71	L
16/08	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	83-80	W
12/08	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	77-91	L
11/08	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	81-89	L
07/08	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	69-88	L
06/08	Panteras Aguascalientes Mexico LNBP	84-74	W
01/08	Soles Mexicali Mexico LNBP	57-71	L
31/07	Soles Mexicali Mexico LNBP	62-69	L
26/07	Astros de Jalisco Mexico LNBP	80-88	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fuerza Regia vs Gambusinos de Fresnillo?

Our model gives 75% to Fuerza Regia.

How many points are expected in Fuerza Regia vs Gambusinos de Fresnillo?

The model estimates 164.2 total points (Fuerza Regia 86.8 · Gambusinos de Fresnillo 77.4).