Prediction: Northern Force vs Melbourne Tigers
Estimated 181.5 total points (Northern Force 84.2 · Melbourne Tigers 97.3).
On recent form, Northern Force is 4-0-6 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Melbourne Tigers 8-0-2 over its own.
| Northern Force | Melbourne Tigers | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 20% | 80% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne Tigers (rating 1473 vs 1599).
- Melbourne Tigers is a clear favourite (75% market).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Northern Force | Melbourne Tigers | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 94 / 101.7 | 91.6 / 77.3 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 100.2 / 96.6 | 90 / 70 |
| Est. result | 84 | 97 |
Standings · Australia NBL1 South
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Tigers | 18 | 14 | 4 | 1641 | 1456 | 0 |
| 2 | Eltham Wildcats | 18 | 14 | 4 | 1630 | 1432 | 0 |
| 3 | Nunawading Spectres | 19 | 14 | 5 | 1928 | 1713 | 0 |
| 4 | Frankston Blues | 18 | 12 | 6 | 1704 | 1660 | 0 |
| 5 | Knox Raiders | 18 | 12 | 6 | 1776 | 1665 | 0 |
| 6 | Keilor Thunder | 19 | 12 | 7 | 1767 | 1660 | 0 |
| 7 | Casey Cavaliers | 18 | 11 | 7 | 1691 | 1620 | 0 |
| 8 | Kilsyth Cobras | 17 | 10 | 7 | 1527 | 1517 | 0 |
| 9 | Sandringham Sabres | 17 | 9 | 8 | 1580 | 1492 | 0 |
| 10 | Dandenong Rangers | 19 | 10 | 9 | 1799 | 1768 | 0 |
| 11 | Ringwood Hawks | 19 | 8 | 11 | 1709 | 1829 | 0 |
| 12 | Waverley Falcons | 17 | 7 | 10 | 1524 | 1537 | 0 |
| 13 | Hobart Chargers | 18 | 7 | 11 | 1666 | 1727 | 0 |
| 14 | Diamond Valley Eagles | 18 | 7 | 11 | 1630 | 1673 | 0 |
| 15 | Bendigo Braves | 18 | 7 | 11 | 1536 | 1639 | 0 |
| 16 | Northern Force | 18 | 6 | 12 | 1644 | 1801 | 0 |
| 17 | Geelong United | 18 | 5 | 13 | 1517 | 1652 | 0 |
| 18 | Mount Gambier Pioneers | 18 | 5 | 13 | 1639 | 1769 | 0 |
| 19 | Ballarat Miners | 19 | 2 | 17 | 1675 | 1973 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Northern Force | Melbourne Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Eltham Wildcats | 82-117 L | 77-63 W |
| Ballarat Miners | 117-99 W | 108-82 W |
| Hobart Chargers | 99-94 W | 101-63 W |
| Dandenong Rangers | 93-116 L | 99-76 W |
| Diamond Valley Eagles | 82-112 L | 88-83 W |
| Kilsyth Cobras | 87-97 L | 95-83 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne Tigers (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northern Force
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Eltham Wildcats Australia NBL1 South |
82-117 | L |
| 19/06 | Sandringham Sabres Australia NBL1 South |
99-82 | W |
| 14/06 | Ballarat Miners Australia NBL1 South |
117-99 | W |
| 12/06 | Mount Gambier Pioneers Australia NBL1 South |
104-91 | W |
| 30/05 | Hobart Chargers Australia NBL1 South |
99-94 | W |
| 24/05 | Frankston Blues Australia NBL1 South |
85-96 | L |
| 23/05 | Geelong United Australia NBL1 South |
92-113 | L |
| 16/05 | Dandenong Rangers Australia NBL1 South |
93-116 | L |
| 15/05 | Diamond Valley Eagles Australia NBL1 South |
82-112 | L |
| 10/05 | Kilsyth Cobras Australia NBL1 South |
87-97 | L |
Melbourne Tigers
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Hobart Chargers Australia NBL1 South |
101-63 | W |
| 28/06 | Dandenong Rangers Australia NBL1 South |
99-76 | W |
| 21/06 | Diamond Valley Eagles Australia NBL1 South |
88-83 | W |
| 20/06 | Bendigo Braves Australia NBL1 South |
85-65 | W |
| 13/06 | Eltham Wildcats Australia NBL1 South |
77-63 | W |
| 05/06 | Casey Cavaliers Australia NBL1 South |
75-83 | L |
| 31/05 | Nunawading Spectres Australia NBL1 South |
93-95 | L |
| 30/05 | Keilor Thunder Australia NBL1 South |
95-80 | W |
| 23/05 | Kilsyth Cobras Australia NBL1 South |
95-83 | W |
| 16/05 | Ballarat Miners Australia NBL1 South |
108-82 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Northern Force vs Melbourne Tigers?
Our model gives 75% to Melbourne Tigers.
How many points are expected in Northern Force vs Melbourne Tigers?
The model estimates 181.5 total points (Northern Force 84.2 · Melbourne Tigers 97.3).