Prediction: Illawarra Hawks NBL1 vs Sydney Comets
Estimated 166.2 total points (Illawarra Hawks NBL1 87.6 · Sydney Comets 78.7). Under 172.5 points (70% of recent history, magic 7).
Over its last 10 matches, Illawarra Hawks NBL1 sits at 8-0-2 (W-D-L), while Sydney Comets arrives on a 4-0-6 run. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Illawarra Hawks NBL1 and 1 for Sydney Comets.
| Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | Sydney Comets | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 23% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Illawarra Hawks NBL1 (rating 1582 vs 1464).
- Illawarra Hawks NBL1 is a clear favourite (85% market).
- H2H favours Illawarra Hawks NBL1: 3-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | Sydney Comets | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 96.5 / 85.6 | 72.3 / 76.4 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 92.4 / 86 | 67.8 / 83.4 |
| Est. result | 88 | 79 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Illawarra Hawks NBL1 3–0–1 Sydney Comets
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/25 Australia NBL1 East | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | 116-76 | Sydney Comets |
| 05/04/25 Australia NBL1 East | Sydney Comets | 77-84 | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 |
| 15/06/24 Australia NBL1 East | Sydney Comets | 120-81 | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 |
| 20/05/23 Australia NBL1 East | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | 77-55 | Sydney Comets |
Standings · Australia NBL1 East
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norths Bears | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1411 | 1240 | 0 |
| 2 | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 1468 | 1282 | 0 |
| 3 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | 17 | 13 | 4 | 1443 | 1261 | 0 |
| 4 | BA Coe | 20 | 13 | 7 | 1669 | 1499 | 0 |
| 5 | Maitland Mustangs | 16 | 10 | 6 | 1408 | 1277 | 0 |
| 6 | Sutherland Sharks | 15 | 9 | 6 | 1322 | 1248 | 0 |
| 7 | Canberra Gunners | 17 | 10 | 7 | 1430 | 1370 | 0 |
| 8 | Central Coast Crusaders | 17 | 9 | 8 | 1448 | 1484 | 0 |
| 9 | Inner West Bulls | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1295 | 1331 | 0 |
| 10 | Sydney Comets | 16 | 7 | 9 | 1213 | 1203 | 0 |
| 11 | Bankstown Bruins | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1408 | 1493 | 0 |
| 12 | Hills Hornets | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1254 | 1359 | 0 |
| 13 | Newcastle Falcons | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1216 | 1294 | 0 |
| 14 | Hornsby Spiders | 16 | 5 | 11 | 1314 | 1428 | 0 |
| 15 | Albury Wodonga Bandits | 16 | 2 | 14 | 1301 | 1600 | 0 |
| 16 | Penrith Panthers | 15 | 1 | 14 | 1059 | 1290 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Illawarra Hawks NBL1 | Sydney Comets |
|---|---|---|
| Albury Wodonga Bandits | 93-73 W | 85-68 W |
| Hills Hornets | 98-105 L | 79-74 W |
| Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | 77-82 L | 61-68 L |
| Penrith Panthers | 94-84 W | 67-68 L |
| Inner West Bulls | 97-76 W | 86-82 W |
| BA Coe | 107-95 W | 62-76 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Illawarra Hawks NBL1 (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Illawarra Hawks NBL1
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Albury Wodonga Bandits Australia NBL1 East |
93-73 | W |
| 27/06 | Hills Hornets Australia NBL1 East |
98-105 | L |
| 21/06 | Bankstown Bruins Australia NBL1 East |
92-77 | W |
| 20/06 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Australia NBL1 East |
77-82 | L |
| 13/06 | Canberra Gunners Australia NBL1 East |
102-93 | W |
| 30/05 | Albury Wodonga Bandits Australia NBL1 East |
111-102 | W |
| 23/05 | Newcastle Falcons Australia NBL1 East |
94-69 | W |
| 16/05 | Penrith Panthers Australia NBL1 East |
94-84 | W |
| 09/05 | Inner West Bulls Australia NBL1 East |
97-76 | W |
| 02/05 | BA Coe Australia NBL1 East |
107-95 | W |
Sydney Comets
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Inner West Bulls Australia NBL1 East |
86-82 | W |
| 20/06 | Norths Bears Australia NBL1 East |
62-87 | L |
| 13/06 | Maitland Mustangs Australia NBL1 East |
67-85 | L |
| 31/05 | BA Coe Australia NBL1 East |
62-76 | L |
| 30/05 | Sutherland Sharks Australia NBL1 East |
62-87 | L |
| 23/05 | Albury Wodonga Bandits Australia NBL1 East |
85-68 | W |
| 16/05 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Australia NBL1 East |
61-68 | L |
| 09/05 | Hills Hornets Australia NBL1 East |
79-74 | W |
| 03/05 | Penrith Panthers Australia NBL1 East |
67-68 | L |
| 02/05 | Hornsby Spiders Australia NBL1 East |
92-69 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Illawarra Hawks NBL1 vs Sydney Comets?
Our model gives 85% to Illawarra Hawks NBL1.
How many points are expected in Illawarra Hawks NBL1 vs Sydney Comets?
The model estimates 166.2 total points (Illawarra Hawks NBL1 87.6 · Sydney Comets 78.7).
Over or under 172.5 points?
Recent history points to under 172.5 points (70%).