Tennis · Challenger Montevideo · 16/11, 17:00

Prediction: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Nicolas Jarry

Team pages: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida · Nicolas Jarry

Prediction summary

Winner

52% 48%

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Nicolas Jarry

Estimated games

23.5

Recent form · 10 last

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 7-3 (W-L)

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Nicolas Jarry 7-3 (W-L)

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Head-to-head

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 3–1 Nicolas Jarry (4 last)

22 Oct2-0 13-10W
06 Apr0-2 8-13L
17 Mar2-1 15-13W
16 Jul2-1 15-10W

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 1568 · Nicolas Jarry 1531

	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida	Nicolas Jarry
Our model	55%	45%
Market	50%	50%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Nicolas Jarry dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 43.8% break avg.
Head-to-head: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 3–1 Nicolas Jarry (4).

Statistics

	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida	Nicolas Jarry
Win %	70%	60%
Win % · Clay	70% (10)	60% (10)
Sets (G-P)	1.5-0.7	1.4-1
Games (G-P)	12.1-10.5	13.6-11.9
Aces	1.9	6.4
Double faults	3.4	1.8
1st serve %	71.6%	71.5%
Break %	49.4%	43.8%

Estimated total games (ours) 23.5

H2H · Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 3 – 1 Nicolas Jarry (4)

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
00:03 +28’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 3–1 Nicolas Jarry

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
22/10/26 Challenger Cali	2-0	13-10	W
06/04/22 Challenger Mexico City	0-2	8-13	L
17/03/22 Challenger Concepcion	2-1	15-13	W
16/07/21 Challenger Todi	2-1	15-10	W

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
03/11	Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay	0-2	7-12	L
25/10	Valerio Aboian Challenger Cali · Clay	2-0	13-9	W
24/10	Gustavo Heide Challenger Cali · Clay	2-0	13-8	W
23/10	Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Cali · Clay	2-1	17-15	W
22/10	Nicolas Jarry Challenger Cali · Clay	2-0	13-10	W
20/10	Jose Pereira Challenger Cali · Clay	2-0	13-9	W
09/10	Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Antofagasta · Clay	0-2	10-13	L
07/10	Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Antofagasta · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
06/10	Alex Barrena Challenger Antofagasta · Clay	2-0	13-8	W
02/10	Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Curitiba · Clay	1-2	10-15	L

Nicolas Jarry

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
10/11	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Lima · Clay	1-2	17-18	L
09/11	Maximo Zeitune Challenger Lima · Clay	2-0	14-11	W
08/11	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Lima · Clay	2-0	14-11	W
27/10	Hugo Dellien Challenger Guayaquil · Clay	0-2	4-12	L
22/10	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Cali · Clay	0-2	10-13	L
20/10	Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Cali · Clay	2-1	18-13	W
14/04	Elmer Moller Challenger Oeiras · Clay	2-1	15-8	W
11/04	Jurij Rodionov Challenger Madrid · Clay	1-2	19-20	L
10/04	Nerman Fatic Challenger Madrid · Clay	2-0	12-5	W
09/04	Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Madrid · Clay	2-0	13-8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Nicolas Jarry?

Our model gives 52% to Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.