Tennis · Challenger Helsinki · 16/11, 13:30
Prediction: Alexander Ritschard vs Kai Wehnelt
Team pages: Alexander Ritschard · Kai Wehnelt
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Ritschard
Kai Wehnelt
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Ritschard
9-1 (W-L)
Kai Wehnelt
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Ritschard 1608 · Kai Wehnelt 1483
| Alexander Ritschard | Kai Wehnelt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Ritschard (rating 1608 vs 1483).
- Alexander Ritschard is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Kai Wehnelt makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Ritschard | Kai Wehnelt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.3 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-7.5 | 13.1-13.1 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 44.9% | 54.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Ritschard
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11 | Leevi Saatela Challenger Helsinki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/11 | Luca Nardi Challenger Orleans · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/11 | Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/10 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/10 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/10 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/10 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Carlos Taberner Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/10 | Andrej Martin Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/10 | Joao Dinis Silva Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Kai Wehnelt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Helsinki · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/11 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 04/11 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Heraklion · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 19/10 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 18/10 | Milos Karol Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 13/10 | Gianluca Cadenasso Challenger Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 12/10 | Alex Marti Pujolras Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
| 11/10 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/09 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Bari · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/09 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Ritschard vs Kai Wehnelt?
Our model gives 74% to Alexander Ritschard, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.