Tennis · Challenger Helsinki · 16/11, 12:00
Prediction: Sumit Nagal vs Michael Vrbensky
Team pages: Sumit Nagal · Michael Vrbensky
Prediction summary
Winner
Sumit Nagal
Michael Vrbensky
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Sumit Nagal
5-5 (W-L)
Michael Vrbensky
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sumit Nagal 1543 · Michael Vrbensky 1528
| Sumit Nagal | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Sumit Nagal | Michael Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.1 | 11.5-10.7 |
| Aces | 1 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 57.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sumit Nagal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11 | Sebastian Gima Challenger Helsinki · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 13/11 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 11/11 | Michael Geerts Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/11 | Karim Bennani Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/11 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Taranto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/11 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/11 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/10 | Alexander Ritschard Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/10 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Michael Vrbensky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Helsinki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/11 | Mika Brunold Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 02/11 | Max Houkes Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/11 | Marek Gengel Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 14/10 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/10 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/10 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sumit Nagal vs Michael Vrbensky?
Our model gives 65% to Sumit Nagal, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.