Tennis · Challenger Champaign · 16/11, 17:00
Prediction: Adam Jilly vs Spencer Johnson
Team pages: Adam Jilly · Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Adam Jilly
Spencer Johnson
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Adam Jilly
5-5 (W-L)
Spencer Johnson
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adam Jilly 1493 · Spencer Johnson 1483
| Adam Jilly | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 40.4% break avg.
- Note: Adam Jilly makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Adam Jilly | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-9.5 | 13.2-12.3 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 40.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adam Jilly
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Joshua Peck M15 Champaign |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Erik Schiessl M15 Wels |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Nico Hipfl M15 Wels |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 29/07 | Michael Gloeckler M15 Wels |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Matic Hribar M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Luca Wiedenmann M15 Store |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Melvin Kumar M15 Store |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Vlad Cristian Breazu UTR Pro Budapest · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Charlie Swaine UTR Pro Budapest · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Norbert Marosik UTR Pro Budapest · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Tomasz Berkieta Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/10 | Jonah Braswell Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/10 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 13/10 | Alastair Gray M25 Austin |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 22/09 | Tristan Boyer Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Jakub Vrba Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Jan Kobierski Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/09 | Erik Arutiunian Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Vignesh Gogineni Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adam Jilly vs Spencer Johnson?
Our model gives 70% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.