Tennis · Challenger Champaign · 16/11, 17:00
Prediction: Oliver Tarvet vs Karl Poling
Team pages: Oliver Tarvet · Karl Poling
Prediction summary
Winner
Oliver Tarvet
Karl Poling
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Oliver Tarvet
8-2 (W-L)
Karl Poling
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oliver Tarvet 1611 · Karl Poling 1454
| Oliver Tarvet | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oliver Tarvet (rating 1611 vs 1454).
- Oliver Tarvet dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 50.6% break avg.
- Oliver Tarvet is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Oliver Tarvet | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-6.6 | 11.4-12.9 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 78.3% | 66.7% |
| Break % | 50.6% | 30% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oliver Tarvet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Ozan Baris Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 31/10 | Matt Ponchet M25 Sheffield |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 30/10 | Viktor Durasovic M25 Sheffield |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Mika Petkovic M25 Sheffield |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/10 | Vladislav Melnic M25 Sheffield |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 27/10 | Conor Gannon M25 Sheffield |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/10 | Paul Jubb M25 Redbridge |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Finn Murgett M25 Redbridge |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/10 | Mika Petkovic M25 Redbridge |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/10 | Jake Evans M25 Redbridge |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Karl Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Filip Jeff Planinsek Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 01/11 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 27/10 | Sebastian Dominko Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/10 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/10 | Maxwell Exsted Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/10 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Fort Worth · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Iker Urribarrens M25 Austin |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Aidan Mchugh M25 Austin |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/09 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oliver Tarvet vs Karl Poling?
Our model gives 80% to Oliver Tarvet, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.