Tennis · UTR Pro Yokohama · 16/11, 02:00
Prediction: Ryotaro Matsumura vs Julian Messina
Team pages: Ryotaro Matsumura · Julian Messina
Prediction summary
Winner
Ryotaro Matsumura
Julian Messina
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Ryotaro Matsumura
7-3 (W-L)
Julian Messina
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryotaro Matsumura 1571 · Julian Messina 1405
| Ryotaro Matsumura | Julian Messina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 28% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ryotaro Matsumura (rating 1571 vs 1405).
- Ryotaro Matsumura is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Julian Messina makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Ryotaro Matsumura | Julian Messina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 0.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-9.5 | 8.1-11 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 59.7% |
| Break % | 45.8% | 40.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryotaro Matsumura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/10 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Kanata Ozaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/09 | Yuga Tashiro UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Kotaro Mochizuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Shingo Masuda UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/03 | Naoki Nakagawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/03 | Hunter Heck UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Julian Messina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Haru Kawanaka UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/11 | Taiyo Hirano UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Ewan Ogura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Kenta Kawada UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/11 | Yakumo Motokura UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/11 | Seiya Nakanishi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Leonard Tramolay UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 21/10 | Joseph Patton UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Stijn Paardekooper UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Ludovico Vaccari UTR Pro Lubbock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryotaro Matsumura vs Julian Messina?
Our model gives 82% to Ryotaro Matsumura, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.