Tennis · UTR Pro Yokohama Women · 16/11, 05:00
Prediction: Natsuho Arakawa vs Mana Kawamura
Team pages: Natsuho Arakawa · Mana Kawamura
Prediction summary
Winner
Natsuho Arakawa
Mana Kawamura
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Natsuho Arakawa
4-6 (W-L)
Mana Kawamura
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Natsuho Arakawa
1–0
Mana Kawamura
(1 last)
- 17 Jun2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Natsuho Arakawa 1401 · Mana Kawamura 1359
| Natsuho Arakawa | Mana Kawamura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Natsuho Arakawa (rating 1401 vs 1359).
- Head-to-head: Natsuho Arakawa 1–0 Mana Kawamura (1).
- Note: Natsuho Arakawa makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Natsuho Arakawa | Mana Kawamura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 0% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.8 | 0.2-2 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.1-12 | 6.6-13 |
| Aces | 3 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 62% | 49.1% |
| Break % | 36.3% | 38.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
H2H · Natsuho Arakawa 1 – 0 Mana Kawamura (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Natsuho Arakawa 1–0 Mana Kawamura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/26 W15 Sapporo | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Natsuho Arakawa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Yuno Kitahara W35 Hamamatsu |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/10 | Lucia Gale W35 Sydney |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Naiktha Bains W35 Sydney |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Lucia Gale W35 Sydney |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Nagi Hanatani W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Rira Kosaka W50 Nanao |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 15/09 | Remika Ohashi W35 Kyoto |
1-2 | 9-11 | L |
| 02/09 | Clarissa Blomqvist W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Eloise Newberry W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 31/07 | Amy Stevens W15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
Mana Kawamura
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Gurmanat Kaur Sandhu W35 Wagga Wagga |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Nagi Hanatani W50 Nanao |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 15/09 | Kanon Sawashiro W35 Kyoto |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Amy Stevens W15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 21/07 | Natsuki Yoshimoto W15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Alana Subasic W15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Stefani Webb W15 Sapporo |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Natsuho Arakawa W15 Sapporo |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Mutsumi Uemura W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Emily Appleton W35 Changwon · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Natsuho Arakawa vs Mana Kawamura?
Our model gives 56% to Natsuho Arakawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.