Tennis · Challenger Montevideo · 16/11, 17:00
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Zdenek Kolar
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Zdenek Kolar
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Zdenek Kolar
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
6-4 (W-L)
Zdenek Kolar
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1561 · Zdenek Kolar 1463
| Valerio Aboian | Zdenek Kolar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1561 vs 1463).
- Valerio Aboian is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Zdenek Kolar makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Zdenek Kolar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.6 | 8.7-11.7 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 1 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 63.1% |
| Break % | 52.4% | 38.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Juan Bautista Torres M25 Santa Cruz |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/11 | Mateus Alves M25 Santa Cruz |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/11 | Glauco Pinheiro Da Cruz Junior M25 Santa Cruz |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/11 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M25 Santa Cruz |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/11 | Federico Coria Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/11 | Alan Magadan Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 31/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/10 | Nick Hardt Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 29/10 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Zdenek Kolar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Lima · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/11 | Elmer Moller Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/10 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Florence · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/10 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Catania · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Filip Cristian Jianu Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/10 | Francesco Forti Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 07/10 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/09 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Hynek Barton Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Zdenek Kolar?
Our model gives 56% to Valerio Aboian, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.