Tennis · Challenger Montevideo · 16/11, 17:00
Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Gonzalo Bueno
Team pages: Juan Pablo Varillas · Gonzalo Bueno
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Pablo Varillas
Gonzalo Bueno
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Pablo Varillas
3-7 (W-L)
Gonzalo Bueno
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Juan Pablo Varillas
3–2
Gonzalo Bueno
(5 last)
- 09 Mar0-2 5-13L
- 11 Oct1-2 12-16L
- 05 Apr2-0 12-4W
- 18 Jan2-0 13-10W
- 14 Oct2-1 16-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1465 · Gonzalo Bueno 1522
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Gonzalo Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gonzalo Bueno (rating 1465 vs 1522).
- Head-to-head: Juan Pablo Varillas 3–2 Gonzalo Bueno (5).
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Gonzalo Bueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-13.1 | 11.5-11.8 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 28.2% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Juan Pablo Varillas 3 – 2 Gonzalo Bueno (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Pablo Varillas 3–2 Gonzalo Bueno
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/26 Challenger Santiago | 0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 11/10/25 Challenger Cali | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 05/04/25 Challenger Campinas | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/01/25 Challenger Buenos Aires | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/10/24 Challenger Campinas | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Lima · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 10/11 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Lima · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/11 | Filip Misolic Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 27/10 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/10 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 22/09 | Tomas Farjat Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Gonzalo Bueno
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Lima · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/11 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Lima · Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 07/11 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/11 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 27/10 | Alex Barrena Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/10 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 19/10 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/10 | Maximo Zeitune Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Gonzalo Bueno?
Our model gives 56% to Gonzalo Bueno, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.