Tennis · Challenger Drummondville · 16/11, 17:00
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Louis Wessels
Team pages: Nicolas Mejia · Louis Wessels
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Louis Wessels
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
4-6 (W-L)
Louis Wessels
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Mejia
1–0
Louis Wessels
(1 last)
- 25 Mar2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1456 · Louis Wessels 1452
| Nicolas Mejia | Louis Wessels | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Louis Wessels dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 45.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Nicolas Mejia 1–0 Louis Wessels (1).
- Note: Louis Wessels makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Louis Wessels | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-12.4 | 11.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 33.5% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
H2H · Nicolas Mejia 1 – 0 Louis Wessels (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Mejia 1–0 Louis Wessels
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/24 Challenger San Luis Potosi | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/11 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/11 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 23/10 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Cali · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/10 | Federico Coria Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Michael Zheng ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/09 | Tallon Griekspoor Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Liam Draxl US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 20/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Louis Wessels
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Theodore Dean M25 Montreal |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 11/11 | Daniel Kliebhan M25 Montreal |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/11 | Aadarsh Tripathi M15 Trois-Rivieres |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 27/10 | Liam Hignett M25 Sheffield |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Philip Henning M25 Sarreguemines |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 22/10 | Kenny de Schepper M25 Sarreguemines |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 21/10 | Noah Boutleux M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/09 | Petros Tsitsipas M25 Slobozia |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/09 | Sebastiano Cocola M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 06/09 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Louis Wessels?
Our model gives 66% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.