Tennis · Challenger Montevideo · 15/11, 15:30
Prediction: Nicolas Kicker vs Boris Arias
Team pages: Nicolas Kicker · Boris Arias
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Kicker
Boris Arias
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Kicker
6-4 (W-L)
Boris Arias
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Kicker 1529 · Boris Arias 1395
| Nicolas Kicker | Boris Arias | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Kicker (rating 1529 vs 1395).
- Nicolas Kicker is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Boris Arias makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Nicolas Kicker | Boris Arias | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 10% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 13% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 0.4-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-8.9 | 7.6-12.5 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 58.9% |
| Break % | 50.7% | 44% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Kicker
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/11 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/11 | Federico Aguilar Cardozo Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/11 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 20/10 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Facundo Mena Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/10 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/10 | Milledge Cossu Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/09 | Facundo Mena Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Boris Arias
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Johan Nikles Challenger Lima · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 27/09 | Santiago De La Fuente Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrej Martin Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Ergi Kirkin Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Dan Martin Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/03 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 23/03 | Conner Huertas Del Pino Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Kicker vs Boris Arias?
Our model gives 80% to Nicolas Kicker, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.