Tennis · Challenger Champaign · 15/11, 17:00
Prediction: Bryce Nakashima vs Hiroki Sakagawa
Team pages: Bryce Nakashima · Hiroki Sakagawa
Prediction summary
Winner
Bryce Nakashima
Hiroki Sakagawa
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Bryce Nakashima
4-6 (W-L)
Hiroki Sakagawa
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bryce Nakashima 1513 · Hiroki Sakagawa 1448
| Bryce Nakashima | Hiroki Sakagawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bryce Nakashima (rating 1513 vs 1448).
- Bryce Nakashima is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Bryce Nakashima | Hiroki Sakagawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-12.5 | 8.6-10.3 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 60.5% |
| Break % | 28.1% | 33.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bryce Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Kaylan Bigun M25 Harlingen |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/11 | Togan Tokac M25 Harlingen |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 03/11 | Quinn Vandecasteele M25 Harlingen |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/10 | Jenson Brooksby Challenger Sioux Falls · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Keegan Smith Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Timo Legout Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 14/09 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Hiroki Sakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Victor Lilov M25 Columbus |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/11 | Hanamichi Carvajal Suazo M25 Columbus |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/11 | Max Wiskandt M25 Harlingen |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 03/11 | Spencer Papa M25 Harlingen |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Cosme Rolland De Ravel M25 Austin |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Nathan Ponwith M15 Champaign |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Brandon Carpico M25 Southaven |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Karim Bennani M25 Edwardsville |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Rohan Belday M25 Edwardsville |
2-0 | 10-3 | W |
| 22/07 | Ilyas Milad Fahim M25 Champaign |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bryce Nakashima vs Hiroki Sakagawa?
Our model gives 75% to Bryce Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.