Tennis · Challenger Metz · 17/11, 10:00
Prediction: Arthur Nagel vs Dusan Lajovic
Team pages: Arthur Nagel · Dusan Lajovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Arthur Nagel
Dusan Lajovic
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Arthur Nagel
8-2 (W-L)
Dusan Lajovic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arthur Nagel 1565 · Dusan Lajovic 1495
| Arthur Nagel | Dusan Lajovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Nagel (rating 1565 vs 1495).
Statistics
| Arthur Nagel | Dusan Lajovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-10.2 | 11.2-10.3 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.7% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 39.6% | 37.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arthur Nagel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Stockholm · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/10 | Philip Henning M25 Sarreguemines |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Maximilian Marterer M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/10 | Calvin Mueller M25 Sarreguemines |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 22/10 | Matt Ponchet M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/10 | Aaron Gabet M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/10 | Loann Massard Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 26/09 | Flynn Thomas M15 Forbach |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/09 | Timeo Trufelli M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Paul Theate M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Dusan Lajovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Maxim Mrva ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/09 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | David Jorda Sanchis US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 18/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/08 | Alexander Rozin Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/08 | Luca Van Assche ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arthur Nagel vs Dusan Lajovic?
Our model gives 52% to Dusan Lajovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.