Tennis · Challenger Metz · 17/11, 10:00
Prediction: Philip Henning vs Hugo Gaston
Team pages: Philip Henning · Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Philip Henning
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Philip Henning
9-1 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Philip Henning 1577 · Hugo Gaston 1467
| Philip Henning | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philip Henning (rating 1577 vs 1467).
- Philip Henning is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Philip Henning | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-10.3 | 12-13.1 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 73.2% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 54.5% | 39.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Philip Henning
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 13/11 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/11 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/11 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/11 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Taranto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 03/11 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/10 | Dmitry Popko M25 Malta |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Xavi Matas Ortega M25 Malta |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/10 | Arthur Nagel M25 Sarreguemines |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/10 | Adrien Gobat M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Orleans · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 31/10 | Vit Kopriva ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 20/10 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Roanne · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Daniel Jade Challenger Roanne · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 25/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Philip Henning vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 52% to Philip Henning, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.