Tennis · Challenger Sydney · 16/11, 00:00
Prediction: Hiroki Moriya vs Thomas Fancutt
Team pages: Hiroki Moriya · Thomas Fancutt
Prediction summary
Winner
Hiroki Moriya
Thomas Fancutt
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Hiroki Moriya
6-4 (W-L)
Thomas Fancutt
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hiroki Moriya
0–1
Thomas Fancutt
(1 last)
- 13 Jul1-2 13-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hiroki Moriya 1542 · Thomas Fancutt 1491
| Hiroki Moriya | Thomas Fancutt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hiroki Moriya (rating 1542 vs 1491).
- Head-to-head: Hiroki Moriya 0–1 Thomas Fancutt (1).
Statistics
| Hiroki Moriya | Thomas Fancutt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-9.8 | 10.1-12.3 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.2% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 18.8% | 12.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Hiroki Moriya 0 – 1 Thomas Fancutt (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hiroki Moriya 0–1 Thomas Fancutt
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/26 Challenger Lincoln | 1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hiroki Moriya
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11 | Sam Ryan Ziegann Challenger Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/11 | Alex Bolt Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/11 | Pavle Marinkov Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/11 | Nikolas Baker Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/10 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/10 | James McCabe Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 26/10 | Timofei Derepasko Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/10 | Taisei Ichikawa Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/10 | Omar Jasika Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Thomas Fancutt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11 | Ymerali Ibraimi Challenger Sydney · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/11 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 09/11 | Tai Leonard Sach Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/11 | Evan Zhu Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 25/10 | Woobin Shin Challenger Seoul · Hard |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 11/10 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/09 | James Trotter Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Zijiang Yang Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hiroki Moriya vs Thomas Fancutt?
Our model gives 57% to Hiroki Moriya, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.