Tennis · W50 Heraklion · 15/11, 12:30
Prediction: Mariia Lazarenko vs Ilinca Sagmar
Team pages: Mariia Lazarenko · Ilinca Sagmar
Prediction summary
Winner
Mariia Lazarenko
Ilinca Sagmar
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Mariia Lazarenko
7-3 (W-L)
Ilinca Sagmar
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mariia Lazarenko 1597 · Ilinca Sagmar 1436
| Mariia Lazarenko | Ilinca Sagmar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 28% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mariia Lazarenko (rating 1597 vs 1436).
- Mariia Lazarenko is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Mariia Lazarenko makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Mariia Lazarenko | Ilinca Sagmar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 0.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-7 | 8.1-11.1 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.9% | 57% |
| Break % | 54% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mariia Lazarenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Anastasia Lizunova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 07/11 | Oceane Babel W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 06/11 | Mailuodi Lei W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/11 | Delia Gaillard W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/11 | Isaure Bruscia W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/10 | Marie Vogt W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/10 | Mailuodi Lei W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/10 | Nina Sozaonova W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/10 | Leire De Ezcurra W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/10 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Ilinca Sagmar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Didi Bredberg Canizares W15 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Lujza Zimenova W15 Bol · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 02/09 | Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni W15 Brasov |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Patricia Georgiana Goina W15 Brasov |
0-2 | 5-9 | L |
| 26/08 | Helena Stevic W15 Brasov |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Mariia Drobysheva W35 Bistrita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Alesia Breaz W35 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
| 30/07 | Eszter Meri W15 Rogaska Slatina |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Gloria Levinsky W15 Rogaska Slatina |
2-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 22/07 | Giulia Safina Popa W15 Cluj Napoca |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mariia Lazarenko vs Ilinca Sagmar?
Our model gives 74% to Mariia Lazarenko, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.