Tennis · Challenger Metz · 15/11, 11:30
Prediction: Calvin Hemery vs Alexander Donski
Team pages: Calvin Hemery · Alexander Donski
Prediction summary
Winner
Calvin Hemery
Alexander Donski
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Calvin Hemery
5-5 (W-L)
Alexander Donski
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Calvin Hemery 1517 · Alexander Donski 1432
| Calvin Hemery | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Calvin Hemery (rating 1517 vs 1432).
- Alexander Donski dominates on serve: 10.3 aces and 49.1% break avg.
- Note: Alexander Donski makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Calvin Hemery | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-12.1 | 10.3-12 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 10.3 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 77.5% |
| Break % | 27.4% | 49.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Calvin Hemery
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Orleans · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/11 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/11 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 09/11 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 08/11 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/11 | Philip Henning Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 26/10 | Robin Catry Challenger Brest · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 25/10 | Adrien Gobat Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Max Houkes M25 Kigali |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Alexander Donski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Luca Nardi Challenger Orleans · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/11 | Omar Jasika Challenger Taipei · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 25/10 | Yunseong Chung Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 17/08 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 07/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/08 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Calvin Hemery vs Alexander Donski?
Our model gives 70% to Calvin Hemery, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.