Tennis · Challenger Helsinki · 17/11, 10:00
Prediction: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Jacob Fearnley
Team pages: Gianluca Cadenasso · Jacob Fearnley
Prediction summary
Winner
Gianluca Cadenasso
Jacob Fearnley
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Gianluca Cadenasso
5-5 (W-L)
Jacob Fearnley
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gianluca Cadenasso 1534 · Jacob Fearnley 1552
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11.8 | 11.7-8.7 |
| Aces | 2 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 74% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 50.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gianluca Cadenasso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Monastir · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/11 | Jay Clarke Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/11 | Florent Bax Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Florence · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/10 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 17/10 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 07/10 | Massimo Giunta Challenger Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Jacob Fearnley
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Stockholm · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/11 | Arthur Nagel ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/10 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Clement Chidekh ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/10 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/10 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gianluca Cadenasso vs Jacob Fearnley?
Our model gives 71% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.