Tennis · Challenger Helsinki · 17/11, 10:00
Prediction: Ilya Ivashka vs Toby Samuel
Team pages: Ilya Ivashka · Toby Samuel
Prediction summary
Winner
Ilya Ivashka
Toby Samuel
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Ilya Ivashka
7-3 (W-L)
Toby Samuel
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilya Ivashka 1557 · Toby Samuel 1515
| Ilya Ivashka | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilya Ivashka (rating 1557 vs 1515).
Statistics
| Ilya Ivashka | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10 | 10.4-10.7 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 78.8% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 39.2% | 24.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilya Ivashka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Liam Draxl Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 14-12 | L |
| 12/10 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/10 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 12/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Stockholm · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/11 | Leo Borg ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/11 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/11 | Karl Friberg ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/11 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Clement Tabur Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Hynek Barton Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilya Ivashka vs Toby Samuel?
Our model gives 59% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.