Tennis · Challenger Helsinki · 17/11, 10:00
Prediction: Andrea Guerrieri vs Elias Ymer
Team pages: Andrea Guerrieri · Elias Ymer
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Guerrieri
Elias Ymer
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Guerrieri
6-4 (W-L)
Elias Ymer
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Guerrieri 1503 · Elias Ymer 1407
| Andrea Guerrieri | Elias Ymer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrea Guerrieri (rating 1503 vs 1407).
- Andrea Guerrieri is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Andrea Guerrieri makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Andrea Guerrieri | Elias Ymer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 0.8-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12.6 | 12-14.3 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 67.3% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 23.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Martin Damm ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 17/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/10 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/10 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex De Minaur US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
Elias Ymer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Stockholm · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/10 | Yi Zhou Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 19/10 | James McCabe Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 13/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 02/10 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 18/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Guerrieri vs Elias Ymer?
Our model gives 61% to Andrea Guerrieri, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.