Tennis · Challenger Helsinki · 17/11, 10:00
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Lorenzo Giustino
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Lorenzo Giustino
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Lorenzo Giustino
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
3-7 (W-L)
Lorenzo Giustino
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1466 · Lorenzo Giustino 1513
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Giustino (rating 1466 vs 1513).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-12.3 | 12.1-11.5 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 33.5% | 47.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Orleans · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 03/11 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/10 | Federico Cina Challenger Brest · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 17/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 15/10 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Lorenzo Giustino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Monastir · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 12/11 | Dali Blanch Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/11 | Nicolas Tepmahc Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/11 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/10 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Florence · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 16/10 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 14/10 | Michael Vrbensky Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 13/10 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/10 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Palermo · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 06/10 | Christian Langmo Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Lorenzo Giustino?
Our model gives 55% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.