Tennis · Challenger Helsinki · 17/11, 10:00
Prediction: Stefano Travaglia vs Marvin Moeller
Team pages: Stefano Travaglia · Marvin Moeller
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano Travaglia
Marvin Moeller
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano Travaglia
3-7 (W-L)
Marvin Moeller
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefano Travaglia
0–1
Marvin Moeller
(1 last)
- 22 Sept1-2 12-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano Travaglia 1496 · Marvin Moeller 1580
| Stefano Travaglia | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marvin Moeller (rating 1496 vs 1580).
- Marvin Moeller is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Stefano Travaglia 0–1 Marvin Moeller (1).
Statistics
| Stefano Travaglia | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-13.3 | 13-11.3 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 30.3% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
H2H · Stefano Travaglia 0 – 1 Marvin Moeller (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefano Travaglia 0–1 Marvin Moeller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/26 Challenger Genoa | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano Travaglia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/10 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/10 | Laslo Djere Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 16/10 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Valentin Royer Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/10 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 22/09 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/09 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Genoa · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Marvin Moeller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11 | Jonas Forejtek Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/11 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 12/11 | Aziz Ouakaa Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 10/11 | Nikolai Barsukov Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/11 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/10 | Gianluca Cadenasso Challenger Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/10 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Ryan Nijboer Challenger Braga · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano Travaglia vs Marvin Moeller?
Our model gives 55% to Marvin Moeller, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.