Tennis · Challenger Metz · 15/11, 10:00
Prediction: Luca Nardi vs Milos Karol
Team pages: Luca Nardi · Milos Karol
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Nardi
Milos Karol
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Nardi
4-6 (W-L)
Milos Karol
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Nardi 1516 · Milos Karol 1498
| Luca Nardi | Milos Karol | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Milos Karol makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Luca Nardi | Milos Karol | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-10.5 | 11.3-11.9 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.2% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 60.4% | 28.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Nardi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Orleans · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 09/11 | Alexander Ritschard Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/11 | Alexander Donski Challenger Orleans · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/10 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/10 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 05/10 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Milos Karol
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 15/10 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Florian Broska Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/10 | Dali Blanch Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 04/10 | Tiago Cacao Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 15/06 | Michael Vrbensky Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Nardi vs Milos Karol?
Our model gives 65% to Luca Nardi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.