Tennis · Challenger Helsinki · 15/11, 11:30
Prediction: Michael Vrbensky vs Vadym Ursu
Team pages: Michael Vrbensky · Vadym Ursu
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Vrbensky
Vadym Ursu
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Vrbensky
7-3 (W-L)
Vadym Ursu
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Vrbensky 1497 · Vadym Ursu 1438
| Michael Vrbensky | Vadym Ursu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Michael Vrbensky (rating 1497 vs 1438).
Statistics
| Michael Vrbensky | Vadym Ursu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-11.2 | 9.7-12.4 |
| Aces | 4 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 62.3% |
| Break % | 55.6% | 48.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Vrbensky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Mika Brunold Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 02/11 | Max Houkes Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/11 | Marek Gengel Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 14/10 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Maia · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/10 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/10 | Patrick Schoen Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Vadym Ursu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Orleans · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/11 | Eero Vasa Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/11 | Radovan Michalik Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/10 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/10 | Adan Freire Da Silva Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 27/09 | Joao Domingues Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Borna Gojo Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Vrbensky vs Vadym Ursu?
Our model gives 57% to Michael Vrbensky, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.