Tennis · Challenger Helsinki · 15/11, 10:00
Prediction: Aaron Funk vs Carlo Alberto Caniato
Team pages: Aaron Funk · Carlo Alberto Caniato
Prediction summary
Winner
Aaron Funk
Carlo Alberto Caniato
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Aaron Funk
3-7 (W-L)
Carlo Alberto Caniato
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aaron Funk 1420 · Carlo Alberto Caniato 1528
| Aaron Funk | Carlo Alberto Caniato | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 13% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlo Alberto Caniato (rating 1420 vs 1528).
- Carlo Alberto Caniato is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Aaron Funk makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Aaron Funk | Carlo Alberto Caniato | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.6 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.6-11.3 | 12.5-11 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 76% |
| Break % | 35.1% | 41.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aaron Funk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Dev Javia M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Aleksandre Bakshi M15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 10-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Maximilian Marterer M25 Ueberlingen |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 30/07 | Yannik Kelm M25 Wetzlar |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Marat Sharipov M25 Wetzlar |
1-1 | 7-8 | L |
| 22/07 | Viktor Durasovic M25 Metzingen |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Jesse De Jager M25 Metzingen |
2-1 | 11-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Skopje · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Kenny de Schepper M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/05 | Michael Bassem Sobhy M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Carlo Alberto Caniato
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/11 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/11 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Taranto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/11 | Philip Henning Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 03/11 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Taranto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/10 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/10 | Diogo Morais Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/10 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/10 | Daniel Siniakov Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aaron Funk vs Carlo Alberto Caniato?
Our model gives 77% to Carlo Alberto Caniato, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.