Tennis · Challenger Sydney · 17/11, 00:00
Prediction: Li Tu vs James McCabe
Team pages: Li Tu · James McCabe
Prediction summary
Winner
Li Tu
James McCabe
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Li Tu
6-4 (W-L)
James McCabe
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Li Tu
3–3
James McCabe
(6 last)
- 16 Apr1-2 11-16L
- 11 Jun2-0 13-7W
- 17 Feb1-2 13-15L
- 22 Apr0-2 6-11L
- 05 Mar2-0 12-6W
- 17 Dec1-0 12-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Li Tu 1468 · James McCabe 1400
| Li Tu | James McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Li Tu (rating 1468 vs 1400).
- Li Tu is in better form: 40% recent wins.
Statistics
| Li Tu | James McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 10% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | 11% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 0.7-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-10.7 | 11.2-14.5 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 8 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 45% | 29.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Li Tu 3 – 3 James McCabe (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Li Tu 3–3 James McCabe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/24 Challenger Gwangju | 1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 11/06/23 Challenger Nottingham | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/02/22 ITF M25 Canberra | 1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/04/21 UTR Pro Tennis Series Canberra | 0-2 | 6-11 | L |
| 05/03/21 UTR Pro Tennis Series Brisbane | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/12/20 UTR Pro Tennis Series Sydney | 1-0 | 12-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Li Tu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Casey Hoole M25 Tamworth |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/10 | Brandon Walkin M25 Tamworth |
1-0 | 6-5 | W |
| 15/10 | Alastair Gray M25 Austin |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/10 | Kaylan Bigun M25 Austin |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Columbus · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 28/09 | James Trotter Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/09 | Nicolas Oliveira Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
James McCabe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Christian Langmo Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 03/11 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 21/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Lukas Neumayer US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Li Tu vs James McCabe?
Our model gives 54% to Li Tu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.