Tennis · Challenger Sydney · 17/11, 00:00
Prediction: Tristan Schoolkate vs Carl Emil Overbeck
Team pages: Tristan Schoolkate · Carl Emil Overbeck
Prediction summary
Winner
Tristan Schoolkate
Carl Emil Overbeck
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Tristan Schoolkate
5-5 (W-L)
Carl Emil Overbeck
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tristan Schoolkate 1501 · Carl Emil Overbeck 1456
| Tristan Schoolkate | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tristan Schoolkate (rating 1501 vs 1456).
- Tristan Schoolkate dominates on serve: 13.6 aces and 52.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Tristan Schoolkate | Carl Emil Overbeck | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-13.5 | 10.1-12.1 |
| Aces | 13.6 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 77.3% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 52.1% | 29.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tristan Schoolkate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 29/10 | Jie Cui Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 27/10 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 24/10 | Jie Cui Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 23/10 | Keegan Smith Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/10 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Dane Sweeny ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Harold Mayot Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Carl Emil Overbeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Juncheng Shang Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 10/11 | Florian Broska Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 05/11 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Ryan Peniston Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tristan Schoolkate vs Carl Emil Overbeck?
Our model gives 61% to Tristan Schoolkate, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.