Tennis · Challenger Sydney · 15/11, 03:00
Prediction: Hayden Jones vs Naoki Nakagawa
Team pages: Hayden Jones · Naoki Nakagawa
Prediction summary
Winner
Hayden Jones
Naoki Nakagawa
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Hayden Jones
6-4 (W-L)
Naoki Nakagawa
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayden Jones 1522 · Naoki Nakagawa 1563
| Hayden Jones | Naoki Nakagawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naoki Nakagawa (rating 1522 vs 1563).
Statistics
| Hayden Jones | Naoki Nakagawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-9.4 | 10.9-8 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 5 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 79.6% |
| Break % | 32.1% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayden Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Anton Shepp Challenger Brisbane · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 28/10 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Stefan Vujic M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Colin Sinclair M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/10 | Makoto Ochi M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/10 | Casey Hoole M25 Darwin |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/10 | Derek Pham M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Scott Jones M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10 | Arjun Mehrotra M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 30/09 | Harrison Satara M25 Darwin |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Tai Leonard Sach M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/10 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Tamworth |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Corban Crowther UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Natsuki Yamamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/09 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/09 | Kuan-Yi Lee M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Ryota Tanuma M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Naoya Honda M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Yua Taka M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayden Jones vs Naoki Nakagawa?
Our model gives 58% to Naoki Nakagawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.