Tennis · Challenger Kobe · 18/11, 03:00
Prediction: Mili Poljicak vs Jay Friend
Team pages: Mili Poljicak · Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
Mili Poljicak
Jay Friend
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Mili Poljicak
4-6 (W-L)
Jay Friend
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mili Poljicak 1425 · Jay Friend 1542
| Mili Poljicak | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1425 vs 1542).
- Jay Friend dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 43.8% break avg.
- Jay Friend is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mili Poljicak | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.7 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-13.4 | 12.2-12.1 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 22.1% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mili Poljicak
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 03/11 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/10 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/10 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/10 | Patrick Brady Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Max Basing Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Matej Dodig Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/11 | Naoya Honda Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/11 | Yusuke Kusuhara Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 29/10 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/10 | August Holmgren Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/10 | James McCabe Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/10 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mili Poljicak vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 73% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.