Tennis · Challenger Kobe · 18/11, 03:00
Prediction: Zhizhen Zhang vs Luca Staeheli
Team pages: Zhizhen Zhang · Luca Staeheli
Prediction summary
Winner
Zhizhen Zhang
Luca Staeheli
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Zhizhen Zhang
5-5 (W-L)
Luca Staeheli
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zhizhen Zhang 1450 · Luca Staeheli 1515
| Zhizhen Zhang | Luca Staeheli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Staeheli (rating 1450 vs 1515).
- Luca Staeheli is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Zhizhen Zhang | Luca Staeheli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-12.6 | 9.4-7.7 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 70.2% |
| Break % | 26.6% | 37.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zhizhen Zhang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/10 | Marin Cilic Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 21/10 | Yi Zhou Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/10 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 22/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 21/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Luca Staeheli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/11 | Saki Tange Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/11 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/10 | Mikalai Haliak M15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/10 | Boris Butulija M15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 9-1 | W |
| 23/10 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 8-1 | W |
| 22/10 | Maksim Shin M15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/10 | Haolong He M15 Shenzhen · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/09 | Andy Andrade Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/09 | Oliver Okonkwo Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zhizhen Zhang vs Luca Staeheli?
Our model gives 58% to Zhizhen Zhang, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.