Tennis · Challenger Kobe · 18/11, 03:00
Prediction: Niels McDonald vs Keegan Smith
Team pages: Niels McDonald · Keegan Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Niels McDonald
Keegan Smith
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Niels McDonald
4-6 (W-L)
Keegan Smith
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Niels McDonald
1–0
Keegan Smith
(1 last)
- 07 Jul2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niels McDonald 1464 · Keegan Smith 1460
| Niels McDonald | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Niels McDonald 1–0 Keegan Smith (1).
Statistics
| Niels McDonald | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9-11.1 | 13.1-14.2 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 50.2% | 22.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Niels McDonald 1 – 0 Keegan Smith (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Niels McDonald 1–0 Keegan Smith
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/26 Challenger Braunschweig | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niels McDonald
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/11 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/10 | Michael Geerts Challenger Brest · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/10 | Pierre Delage Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Jakub Paul Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 28/09 | Niels Visker Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Zaccharie Cado Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Hamburg · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Keegan Smith
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/11 | Jake Delaney Challenger Taipei · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/10 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 23/10 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/10 | Fajing Sun Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 20/10 | Max Purcell Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/10 | Vit Kopriva Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 06/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niels McDonald vs Keegan Smith?
Our model gives 59% to Keegan Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.