Tennis · Challenger Kobe · 18/11, 03:00
Prediction: Daniel Michalski vs Taro Daniel
Team pages: Daniel Michalski · Taro Daniel
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Michalski
Taro Daniel
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Michalski
8-2 (W-L)
Taro Daniel
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Michalski
1–0
Taro Daniel
(1 last)
- 28 Sept2-1 18-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Michalski 1538 · Taro Daniel 1477
| Daniel Michalski | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Michalski (rating 1538 vs 1477).
- Daniel Michalski is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daniel Michalski 1–0 Taro Daniel (1).
Statistics
| Daniel Michalski | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-7.6 | 10.7-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 50.7% | 40.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
H2H · Daniel Michalski 1 – 0 Taro Daniel (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Michalski 1–0 Taro Daniel
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/21 Challenger Lisbon | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Michalski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/11 | August Holmgren Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 09/10 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/10 | Alessandro Bellifemine M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 07/10 | Lorenzo Bocchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/09 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/09 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Lorenzo Carboni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Taro Daniel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/11 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/11 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/10 | Terence Atmane Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/10 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 28/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 24/09 | Dane Sweeny ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Michalski vs Taro Daniel?
Our model gives 56% to Taro Daniel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.