Tennis · WTA Finals · 15/11, 21:00
Prediction: Mirra Andreeva vs Jessica Pegula
Team pages: Mirra Andreeva · Jessica Pegula
Prediction summary
Winner
Mirra Andreeva
Jessica Pegula
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Mirra Andreeva
7-3 (W-L)
Jessica Pegula
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mirra Andreeva 1592 · Jessica Pegula 1553
| Mirra Andreeva | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Mirra Andreeva | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-6.9 | 13-11.2 |
| Aces | 4 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 55.1% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mirra Andreeva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Finals · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/11 | Elina Svitolina WTA Finals · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/10 | Yue Yuan WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Linda Noskova WTA Finals · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 10/11 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Finals · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/11 | Coco Gauff WTA Finals · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 14/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 11/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 07/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mirra Andreeva vs Jessica Pegula?
Our model gives 58% to Mirra Andreeva, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.