Tennis · M25 Santa Cruz · 13/11, 16:00
Prediction: Valerio Aboian vs Mateus Alves
Team pages: Valerio Aboian · Mateus Alves
Prediction summary
Winner
Valerio Aboian
Mateus Alves
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Valerio Aboian
5-5 (W-L)
Mateus Alves
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Valerio Aboian
0–1
Mateus Alves
(1 last)
- 09 Jan0-2 3-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerio Aboian 1529 · Mateus Alves 1484
| Valerio Aboian | Mateus Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerio Aboian (rating 1529 vs 1484).
- Head-to-head: Valerio Aboian 0–1 Mateus Alves (1).
Statistics
| Valerio Aboian | Mateus Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-10.6 | 9.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 48% | 34.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Valerio Aboian 0 – 1 Mateus Alves (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valerio Aboian 0–1 Mateus Alves
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/24 Challenger Buenos Aires | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valerio Aboian
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Glauco Pinheiro Da Cruz Junior M25 Santa Cruz |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/11 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M25 Santa Cruz |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/11 | Federico Coria Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/11 | Alan Magadan Challenger Villa Maria · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 31/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/10 | Nick Hardt Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 29/10 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/10 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/10 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Mateus Alves
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11 | Enrique Bogo M25 Santa Cruz |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/11 | Rafael Tosetto M25 Santa Cruz |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/11 | Filip Misolic Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/10 | Jose Pereira Challenger Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Bernardo Munk Mesa Challenger Cali · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/10 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/10 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jose Pereira Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Bautista De La Pena Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valerio Aboian vs Mateus Alves?
Our model gives 56% to Valerio Aboian, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.