Tennis · ATP Finals MD · 15/11, 18:00
Prediction: Arevalo/Pavic vs Arribage/Olivetti
Team pages: Arevalo/Pavic · Arribage/Olivetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Arevalo/Pavic
Arribage/Olivetti
Estimated games
26.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Arevalo/Pavic
6-4 (W-L)
Arribage/Olivetti
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Arevalo/Pavic
1–1
Arribage/Olivetti
(2 last)
- 20 Aug1-2 14-20L
- 12 Aug2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arevalo/Pavic 1474 · Arribage/Olivetti 1617
| Arevalo/Pavic | Arribage/Olivetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arribage/Olivetti (rating 1474 vs 1617).
- Arribage/Olivetti is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Arevalo/Pavic | Arribage/Olivetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.6 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.8-17.5 | 14.9-12.1 |
| Aces | 6 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 76.6% | 85.9% |
| Break % | 20.6% | 34.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +5.3
Over 21.5: 83% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 17% · 2.00
H2H · Arevalo/Pavic 1 – 1 Arribage/Olivetti (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arevalo/Pavic 1–1 Arribage/Olivetti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/26 ATP Cincinnati MD | 1-2 | 14-20 | L |
| 12/08/26 ATP Montreal MD | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arevalo/Pavic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Nouza/Venus ATP Paris MD · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Cerundolo/Etcheverry ATP Vienna MD · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 10/10 | Pavlasek/Rikl ATP Shanghai MD · Hard |
1-2 | 20-23 | L |
| 10/09 | Krawietz/Puetz US Open MD · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Miedler/Polmans US Open MD · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/09 | Kiger/Kovacevic US Open MD · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 05/09 | Johnson/Zielinski US Open MD · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 20/08 | Arribage/Olivetti ATP Cincinnati MD · Hard |
1-2 | 14-20 | L |
| 17/08 | Khachanov/Rublev ATP Cincinnati MD · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Luz/Matos ATP Montreal MD · Hard |
1-2 | 17-21 | L |
Arribage/Olivetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Halys/Herbert ATP Paris MD · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/11 | Pavlasek/Rikl ATP Paris MD · Hard |
2-1 | 22-17 | W |
| 04/11 | Cash/Glasspool ATP Paris MD · Hard |
2-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 01/11 | Bernet/Stricker ATP Basel MD · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 31/10 | Frantzen/Haase ATP Basel MD · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Michelsen/Van De Zandschulp ATP Basel MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/10 | Nys/Roger-Vasselin ATP Basel MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/10 | Cash/Glasspool ATP Lyon MD · Hard |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 24/10 | Matisse Bobichon/Feldbausch ATP Lyon MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/10 | Gonzalez/Jebens ATP Lyon MD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arevalo/Pavic vs Arribage/Olivetti?
Our model gives 56% to Arribage/Olivetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.