Tennis · ATP Finals MD · 15/11, 11:30
Prediction: Heliovaara/Patten vs Luz/Matos
Team pages: Heliovaara/Patten · Luz/Matos
Prediction summary
Winner
Heliovaara/Patten
Luz/Matos
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Heliovaara/Patten
6-4 (W-L)
Luz/Matos
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heliovaara/Patten 1548 · Luz/Matos 1475
| Heliovaara/Patten | Luz/Matos | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heliovaara/Patten (rating 1548 vs 1475).
- Heliovaara/Patten dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Heliovaara/Patten is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Heliovaara/Patten | Luz/Matos | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.1 | 13.5-13.9 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 82.6% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 21.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.9
Over 21.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 31% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heliovaara/Patten
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Halys/Herbert ATP Paris MD · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/11 | Bonzi/Rinderknech ATP Paris MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/11 | Doumbia/Pel ATP Paris MD · Hard |
2-1 | 11-8 | W |
| 30/10 | Miedler/Oberleitner ATP Vienna MD · Hard |
1-2 | 18-23 | L |
| 28/10 | Krajicek/Mektic ATP Vienna MD · Hard |
1-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 10/09 | Harrison/Skupski US Open MD · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Andreozzi/Guinard US Open MD · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 09/09 | Cabral/Tracy US Open MD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/09 | Arnaldi/Struff US Open MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Cerundolo/Cerundolo US Open MD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Luz/Matos
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Miedler/Oberleitner ATP Paris MD · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/11 | Navone/Tabilo ATP Paris MD · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/10 | Harrison/Skupski ATP Vienna MD · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Cerundolo/Michelsen ATP Brussels MD · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Arends/Johnson ATP Brussels MD · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/10 | Cabral/Tracy ATP Shanghai MD · Hard |
1-2 | 25-28 | L |
| 01/10 | Cash/Erler ATP Beijing MD · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/09 | Paul/Stricker Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/09 | Carpico/Filin US Open MD · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 23/08 | Frantzen/Haase ATP Cincinnati MD · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heliovaara/Patten vs Luz/Matos?
Our model gives 67% to Heliovaara/Patten, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.