Tennis · ATP Finals · 16/11, 20:30
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Flavio Cobolli
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Flavio Cobolli
Estimated games
25.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
5-5 (W-L)
Flavio Cobolli
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
2–1
Flavio Cobolli
(3 last)
- 28 Apr1-2 14-17L
- 30 Sept2-0 12-6W
- 01 Sept3-0 18-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1537 · Flavio Cobolli 1507
| Daniil Medvedev | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 2–1 Flavio Cobolli (3).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-9.8 | 14.5-16.1 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 39.8% | 33.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.8
Over 22.5: 69% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 31% · 1.90
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 2 – 1 Flavio Cobolli (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 2–1 Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 ATP Madrid | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/09/24 ATP Beijing | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09/24 US Open | 3-0 | 18-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Ignacio Buse ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 31/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/10 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 23/10 | Terence Atmane ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Flavio Cobolli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 24/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 23/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 22/10 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Roman Safiullin ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/09 | Alexander Blockx US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 13-24 | L |
| 03/09 | Tristan Schoolkate US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 01/09 | Francisco Comesana US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-23 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli?
Our model gives 69% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.