Tennis · ATP Finals · 16/11, 14:00
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
8-2 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
2–1
Frances Tiafoe
(3 last)
- 05 Jul3-2 28-23W
- 10 Sept3-2 30-21W
- 20 Apr0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1628 · Frances Tiafoe 1495
| Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (rating 1628 vs 1495).
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2–1 Frances Tiafoe (3).
Statistics
| Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.3 | 1.6-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-9.9 | 15.9-15.1 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.2% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 38.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4.5
Over 20.5: 79% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 21% · 1.83
H2H · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2 – 1 Frances Tiafoe (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2–1 Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/24 Wimbledon | 3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 10/09/22 US Open | 3-2 | 30-21 | W |
| 20/04/21 ATP Barcelona | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Ben Shelton ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/11 | Casper Ruud ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/11 | Taylor Fritz ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 04/11 | Alex Michelsen ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/11 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frances Tiafoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Quentin Halys ATP Paris · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 28/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 09/10 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Kei Nishikori ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 08/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 06/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 05/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 78% to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.