Tennis · ATP Finals · 15/11, 20:30
Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Fils
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Arthur Fils
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Arthur Fils
Estimated games
25.3Bet365 line 25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
4-6 (W-L)
Arthur Fils
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ben Shelton
2–1
Arthur Fils
(3 last)
- 26 Oct2-0 13-9W
- 29 Sept1-2 18-20L
- 22 Sept2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1554 · Arthur Fils 1535
| Ben Shelton | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 15 aces and 40.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Ben Shelton 2–1 Arthur Fils (3).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-14.2 | 13-12.1 |
| Aces | 15 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 76.3% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 28% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3 · Bet365 line 25.5
Over 25.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 25.5: 52% · 1.83
H2H · Ben Shelton 2 – 1 Arthur Fils (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ben Shelton 2–1 Arthur Fils
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/24 ATP Basel | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/09/24 ATP Tokyo | 1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 22/09/23 Laver Cup | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/11 | Luca Van Assche ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/11 | Tommy Paul ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/11 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 03/11 | Cameron Norrie ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/10 | Jerome Kym ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 27/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 11/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/09 | Jakub Mensik Davis Cup |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Arthur Fils
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Taylor Fritz ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Tomas Machac ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 27/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Pavel Kotov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 02/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Arthur Fils?
Our model gives 54% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.