Tennis · ATP Finals · 15/11, 14:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Jodar
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Rafael Jodar
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Rafael Jodar
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
8-2 (W-L)
Rafael Jodar
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
1–0
Rafael Jodar
(1 last)
- 02 Jun3-0 19-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1565 · Rafael Jodar 1539
| Alexander Zverev | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 1–0 Rafael Jodar (1).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-12.2 | 14.4-11.3 |
| Aces | 10.3 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 78% | 70.7% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.7
Over 22.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 38% · 1.83
H2H · Alexander Zverev 1 – 0 Rafael Jodar (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 1–0 Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/26 French Open | 3-0 | 19-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 30/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/10 | Martin Landaluce ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 17/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 15/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 11/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/10 | Yibing Wu ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Casper Ruud ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/11 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 27/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 17/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Jodar?
Our model gives 60% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.